The biggest change would be seen in the city's median family income, which historically has lagged behind the other large Texas cities, said Angelos Angelou, an owner of AngelouEconomics in Austin.

San Antonio median family income in 1999 was $44,729, compared to $59,426 in Austin and $55,854 in Dallas, said Angelou, a site selection and economic forecasting expert.

Between 1989 and 1999, San Antonio had a 49 percent gain in median family income, compared to 25 percent in Austin and 7 percent to 8 percent in Dallas and Houston.

SBC Communications' 1992 relocation to San Antonio was a large reason behind the 49 percent increase, Angelou said.

"The city has focused on high value-adding jobs," Angelou told about 75 people attending a luncheon sponsored by Compass Bank of Texas and the Texas A&M University Mays Business School. "If Toyota were to come to San Antonio, I would guess you would have about the same job pay increases that you've had the last decade."

San Antonio reportedly is a finalist for a $750 million auto assembly plant. An announcement could come in November or December.

San Antonio overall has outperformed the Texas economy during the national economic slump in several indicators, he explained.

San Antonio is the only large Texas city that will eke out a small job growth in 2002 of about 1,000 jobs, or 0.1 percent. In 2003, Angelou predicted, that would rebound to about 2 percent in job growth, or 13,000 net new jobs.

One reason San Antonio is surviving the Texas recession well is because of its relative lack of technology-based industry.

Dallas has about 40 percent of the state's technology-based manufacturing and services, and Austin is second with 19 percent. San Antonio has only about 6 percent to 7 percent.

Sales tax rebates to the San Antonio area were up last year and will go up again in 2002 despite a dip in the second quarter. And holiday retail sales in San Antonio also will be the best in the state, Angelou predicted — up 2 percent from 2001.

San Antonio area layoffs also have been much lower than in Austin and Dallas, Angelou said. Job increases in San Antonio have occurred in services, construction, telecommunications and utilities.

Despite a 13,000 gain in jobs next year, San Antonio will maintain a 5 percent unemployment rate because of a projected population growth of about 25,000 in 2003.

"People are moving here because when they know that when the recovery happens, their chances will be better here than where they are leaving," Angelou said.

dhendricks@express-news.net